Is it true that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida left Japan following a major earthquake advisory issued on August 8, 2024? No, that's not true: Kishida was scheduled to be in Eurasia from August 9 to 12, 2024, but he decided to cancel his visit after an advisory on the potential threat of a severe upcoming earthquake in the Nankai Trough zone was announced. In a press conference, he explained that it was the government's responsibility to take every possible measure to respond to and disseminate information on the risk of a strong earthquake hitting the country.
The claim originated on TikTok in a video posted on August 9, 2024, no longer available on the platform but archived here. The video contained a screenshot from X (archived here), formerly Twitter, on a breaking news article claiming that Kishida had moved abroad. Translating from Japanese to English, the screenshot text read:
Prime Minister Kishida escapes overseas
Below the screenshot, a sticker caption from the poster, translated from Japanese into English, read:
Prime Minister Kishida went overseas?! Even in the event of a Nankai Trough emergency, he goes overseas. Well, it doesn't really make a difference whether he's here or not anwyay. He's the kind of person who takes time off to celebrate his birthday or because of rain, so I'm not surprised.
This is what the post looked like on TikTok at the time of writing:
(Source: TikTok screenshot taken on Mon Aug 19 10:19:43 2024 UTC)
When opening the link on the X post, the article containing the claim that Kishida escaped overseas is nowhere to be found. Instead, there is a link to an article in Mainichi Shimbun (archived here), one of Japan's major newspapers, reporting on Kishida's plans to visit Eurasia from August 9 to 12, 2024, during Obon (archived here), a Japanese custom to commemorate the dead, and the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party Presidential Elections in September (archived here). There is no mention of Kishida escaping overseas because of the potential threat of the Nankai Trough Earthquake in the Mainichi Shimbun article, and the article itself was posted on August 8, 2024, at 2:12 PM JST, two hours before a 7.1 magnitude earthquake did hit southern Japan hit the Hyuga Sea (archived here), which occurred at 4:43 PM JST, that day.
The earthquake that hit the Hyuga Sea is believed to be a pre-quake of the infamous Nankai Trough earthquake (archived here), which refers to a trench along the eastern coast of Japan that has been predicted to produce a mega earthquake of 8-9 magnitude in the next 30 years. Strong earthquakes have hit along the Nankai Trough, the latest being the 1946 Nankaido Earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1 (archived here), hitting the southern part of Japan in Kyushu. According to the Japan Meteorological Association, the Nankai Trough mega earthquakes are said to occur repeatedly at intervals of approximately 100-150 years (archived here), and since it had been about 80 years since the 1946 Nankaido Earthquake, geologists have estimated that there is a 70-80% chance that the next Nankai Trough mega earthquake will occur within the next 30 years (archived here).
After the major earthquake risk advisory for the predicted Nankai Trough Earthquake was issued across Japan, Kishida held a press conference on August 9, 2024 (archived here) during the Nagasaki National Peace Memorial Ceremony (archived here). Translating from Japanese to English, Kishida formally canceled his meetings in Eurasia following the announcement:
As the Prime Minister, who is also responsible for handling crisis management in the country, I've decided to stay in Japan for one week at the very least to stay safe. [In this one week] The Japan Meteorological Agency is urging people to double-check and reconfirm their earthquake preparedness. As the government, we are responsible for taking every possible measure to respond and gather all the information [on the earthquake] that we can. Due to this, I've decided to cancel my planned visits to Central Asia and Mongolia. After my schedule in Nagasaki [for the National Peace Memorial Ceremony], I will immediately return to the Prime Minister's office to respond to the earthquake disaster and emergency information regarding the Nankai Trough earthquake.
It has been reported by the NHK (archived here) that Kishida had phoned the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan immediately after returning to the Prime Minister's office from Nagasaki.
Furthermore, it has also been announced by Kishida himself that he will be stepping down as prime minister in September 2024, in a press conference on August, 14, 2024 (archived here). In comments translated from Japanese to English by Lead Stories staff, he stated:
I will not run in the upcoming presidential election. I will devote myself to supporting the new leader selected through the presidential election [...] I will do my utmost to advance as much as possible under my responsibility as Prime Minister and President of the LDP during my term of office until September. As Prime Minister and President of the LDP, I will devote myself entirely to implementing policies until the very last day, including the recovery and reconstruction from the Noto Peninsula earthquake and disaster prevention measures for the Nankai Trough earthquake and typhoons.
Kishida's last diplomatic scheduled event was a phone call with Mongolia's Prime Minister, Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrain (archived here). As stated in his press conference, he will resume his duties as Prime Minister of Japan until the end of September 2024. The LDP Presidential Elections (archived here) are scheduled to be announced on September 12, 2024, with voting taking place on September 27, 2024.
